World Aquaculture December 2019

WWW.WA S.ORG • WORLD AQUACULTURE • DECEMBER 2019 55 H uman subsistence in arid or semi-arid desert regions depends on the water supply. This is espe- cially true for farmers practicing dryland farming. Typically these farmers sow seeds of barley, wheat or other basic grains in the begin- ning of the rainy season. If rain is sufficient (>200-400 mm), grains are harvested following the rainy season and stored to be used as food in the months to follow. Crop residues and weeds growing in non-arable fields are used as forage to feed cows and sheep, providing the farmer and his family with meat and milk as important sourc- es of animal protein. However, in years when rainfall is less than the minimum to provide for growth of the agricultural crops and pasture, yield may not be enough to support subsistence needs of the family. This is especially true when a se- ries of droughts takes place. In such years we can see skinny farm ani- mals, dying from hunger and thirst. As a result of global climate change, sequences of dry years are more common than before, leading to critical geopolitical developments. Thomas Friedman of the New York Times followed the effects of droughts on political instability and the civil war in Syria (Friedman 2013, 2017). The economy of Syria is predominantly based on agriculture, mostly dryland farming. When sequences of dry years took place since 2005 (Fig. 1), the farmers lost their sources of subsistence food, could not feed their families and had to look for help. Amassive migration of farmers and their families fleeing from their villages to cities took place. About a million such refugees went to Damascus looking for food, work and shelter. Many more fled to other cities and towns. The presence of refugees looking for essential life support, trying to get it formally or informally, caused a breakdown of social order, led to a political upset and finally was a major factor leading to the Syrian civil war and the death of more than half a Aquaculture as a Solution to Droughts Yoram Avnimelech, George Chamberlain, Amir Neori, Sherif Sadek and Marc Verdegem million people and destruction of the country’s infrastructure. Similar developments take place presently or are expected to take place in the near future in other countries in the area. Iran, with more than 80 million inhabitants, mostly farmers, is in a similar situation. Rainfall does not provide the needed surface water and groundwater is overdrawn, leading to the lowering of aquifer levels. In areas near Teheran, groundwater depletion has led to massive soil subsidence. An even worse situation has occurred in the Kingdom of Jordan. The water supply to Iraq is threatened mostly by construction of the huge Atatürk Dam (and other dams) in Turkey, itself suffering desertification, affecting water flow in the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, the critical water arteries supplying water to the country. The situation in the countries around the Nile River watershed, with a population of about 430 million people, is very complicated and dangerous. The Nile River is the major and almost sole source of water to Sudan and Egypt. However, conditions have changed due to population growth, water demands of countries in the upstream parts of the Nile River watershed and global climate change. Many dams have been constructed in this region, including the huge Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that is being constructed and will hold about 70 km 3 water. Upon filling the dam, it is assumed that millions of Egyptian farmers and their families will struggle to survive. Global climate change threatens to lead to further sequences of drought in the already arid and semi-arid regions of the world and threatens the well-being and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people living in these regions. We cannot heal global climate change within the near future but we can and should use all possible means ( T E X T C O N T I N U E D O N P A G E 5 6 ) FIGURE 1. Annual precipitation at Maragha, northern Syria, from 1996 to 2010. FIGURE 2. Severe droughts take a heavy toll on livestock, deeply affecting the food security of those dependent on these important sources of animal protein. Global climate change threatens to lead to further sequences of drought in the already arid and semi-arid regions of the world and threatens the well-being and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people living in these regions. We cannot heal global climate change within the near future but we can and should use all possible means to minimize the dangers of water deficiency.