WWW.WAS.ORG • WORLD AQUACULTURE • SEPTEMBER 2015 35 TABLE 1. Sensitivity indicators. No Indicator Description 1 Proportion of fish farmers in the total population. Represents the level of dependency on fisheries/aquaculture. 2 Accessibility of facilities Represents location advantage for (road, river, market, school, hospital, telecommunications) economic influence and/or rescue. 3 Local topography (slope, aspect, elevation) Represents sensitivity of the local ecosystem by its topographic characteristics, for the upland areas. 4 Agro-ecosystem Represents sensitivity of the local ecosystem for the lowland areas: dependency on agroforestry income. 5 River-mouth/ocean outlet ecosystem Scenarios for climate change are also adapted from IPCC for future prediction and tools for analysis are often statistical or geographic information system (GIS) (Handisyde et al. 2006, Ramieri et al. 2011). As GIS has advantages in spatial data handling, it has been considered the most suitable means of spatial data overlays for climate change analyses. For vulnerability assessment, a spatial model with GIS and socio-economic data layers was developed for Nghe An province. Vulnerability assessment models combine submodels for sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity to climate change impacts. Each submodel is formed by a number of indicators through various processes of evaluation to finalize an integrated indicator for vulnerability. The spatial model to assess the vulnerability of aquaculture in Nghe An province was developed using GIS and a set of indicators (Tables 1-3) that consider Numerous definitions of adaptive capability are found in the climate change literature, most are variations on a common theme. Brooks (2003) described adaptation as “adjustments in a system’s behavior and characteristics that enhance its ability to cope with external stress.” Smit et al. (2000), in the climate change context, refered to adaptations as “adjustments in ecological-socio-economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli, their effects or impacts.” Exposure refers to the presence (location) of people, livelihoods, environmental services and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places that could be adversely affected by physical events and which, thereby, are subject to potential future harm, loss or damage. This definition subsumes physical and biological systems under the concept of “environmental services and resources,” accepting that these are fundamental for human welfare and security (Gasper 2010). (CONTINUED ON PAGE 36) TABLE 2. Exposure indicators. No Indicator Sub-indicator Description 1 Storm 30-year frequency Represents impacts from nature by longitudinal zone within a period of 30 years. Level of impact Amplitude and impact area. Impact zoning Distance from coastline to facilities. 2 Flash flood Frequency Historical data for flash flood frequency. Occurrence possibility Potential possibility to occur in other areas. 3 Flood Impact of flood Historical flood impact data. Evaluation of the impacts (using hydraulic model). 4 Sea level rise Impacts of salinity Follow expert group’s opinions and sea level rise scenarios. intrusion by space and time 5 Temperature Impacts from Disease, immigration, low production, pollution. temperature increase
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