12 DECEMBER 2017 • WORLD AQUACULTURE • WWW.WAS.ORG Global Aquaculture Production Statistics — Interpret At Your Own Risk The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) has been producing capture fisheries and aquaculture production data for many decades. Originally these were published annually as hard copy publications; latterly they have become far more readily accessible through the internet (FAO 2017). New data, together with revisions of data previously published for earlier years, is issued roughly 15 months after the end of each calendar year (for example, the data currently available are for 2015; those for 2016 should become available in the spring of 2018). Many (perhaps most) WAS members have used these data — in research papers, articles and reviews (e.g. New and Nair 2012). They are also extensively used by public and private organisations — national and regional governments, banks, aid organisations, universities, trainers, NGOs, feed and equipment manufacturers, producers’ organisations, exporters and importers, food buyers, et al. — to forecast supply and demand. We have been aware that accuracy has been a problem, especially in the data from several of the major aquaculture producing nations. All of us abide by the precautionary principle that ‘there are lies, damn lies and statistics.’ However, we have continued to use the data provided by FAO — for reporting and forecasting purposes — in the absence of any other more accurate information. What is alarming is the scale of the problem, which has been recently revealed by FAO itself. In an overview article on global production trends, Zhou (2017) notes that although production of all aquatic animals, plants and non-food products has reached an all-time high, the production of aquatic animals in the first 15 years of the new millennium has gradually slowed down. The increase in global food fish production in 2015 over 2014 (4 percent) is the lowest annual growth rate for several decades. However, what concerns me more than this observation is the author’s exposition of the dubious accuracy and incompleteness of the data used in producing these data and analyses. Quoting verbatim from the paper by Zhou (2017) [the italics are mine]: “….the situation of national aquaculture statistics collection and reporting to FAO remains unsatisfactory. For 2015 data collection FAO received data reports from 118 countries and territories only, representing 58 percent of the aquaculture producer countries and territories in the world. Irrespective of ‘developing’ and ‘developed’ status, non-reporting countries include a considerable number of global and regional major aquaculture producer countries. Among the received data reports, the majority of them have substandard reporting quality in terms of completeness, timeliness, consistency and accuracy, etc. In the absence of national reporting (including incomplete recording), FAO has to harvest national data from known official sources or make estimates based on the best available evidence from various alternative sources. In 2015 about 66 million tonnes (88.7 percent) of the world food fish aquaculture production quantity corresponds to reported data, while the rest (8.7 million t, 21.3 percent [sic]) corresponds to harvested data and FAO estimates.” It is therefore clear that 83 of the 201 countries currently with aquaculture production are not reporting data to FAO at all, requiring information to be prised out of other national sources or estimated by FAO staff. More alarming still is the revelation that FAO itself questions the accuracy of the data reported by those countries that do ostensibly cooperate. These countries include many of the major aquaculture producing nations. It is clear therefore that we are all using data of seriously dubious quality, not only to record the progress of global, regional and national aquaculture production but also to forecast the future of our industry. We have no alternative. My purpose in writing this short note is to publicize this fact, to advise every data user and forecaster to be cautious and to urge those with influence to help their countries collect, analyse and report their production data to FAO more accurately and efficiently. No criticism of FAO is intended or implied. The fault lies with national data collecting agencies. — Michael B. New, Past President, World Aquaculture Society References FAO. 2017. http://www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/software/fishstatj/ New, M.B. and C.M. Nair. 2012. Global scale of freshwater prawn farming. Aquaculture Research Special Issue Giant Prawn 2011 43:960-969. Zhou, X. 2017. An overview of recently published global aquaculture statistics. FAO Aquaculture Newsletter 56:6-8. Recent Research Highlight, continued from page 11 extensive and semi-intensive culture globally. The accumulation of phosphorus in sediment observed in this study warrants solutions to a critical need to develop feeds containing phosphorus sources that are readily available and highly digestible by the fed species. Also, as emphasized by the authors, the results point to the need for development and implementation of management practices that will uniquely mitigate the accumulation of or remove phosphorus in sediment in earthen ponds. — Lou D’Abramo, Section Editor, JWAS
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