The United States (U.S.) is a top exporter of live ornamental fish to the global market. This study identifies the export destinations, analyzes the trends, and determinants of U.S. ornamental fish exports from 2001 to 2023. We have used an augmented gravity model with Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) on annual bilateral data, incorporating importer and time-fixed effects. Results indicate that a higher urban population share of the export destinations and greater liner shipping connectivity (LSBCI) significantly increase U.S. exports (p < 0.05). Importing countries’ GDP has a positive. Bilateral distance (harmonic mean) and applied tariffs have negative and statistically significant effects (p < 0.05), highlighting the importance of logistics, service networks, and trade costs in live ornamental fish export. Even modest tariff increases reduce exports, while urbanized markets provide greater opportunities. A shared border exerts a weakly positive effect (p < 0.10), and the EU membership is negatively associated with imports, consistent with intra-bloc sourcing and regulatory frictions. The WTO membership is not statistically robust after controlling for other costs.
Using fitted PPML values, we assessed market utilization and identified under- and over-performing destinations. The analysis reveals persistent under-utilization in several high-income markets (e.g., Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Sweden, New Zealand, UAE) and over-performance in emerging markets (e.g., Thailand, Ecuador, Guatemala, Sri Lanka, Brazil, and in some years, Trinidad & Tobago, Aruba, Turkey). Policy implications include strengthening maritime service connectivity, negotiating trade agreements to reduce tariffs, and facilitating more efficient trade relations with the EU.