WWW.WAS.ORG • WORLD AQUACULTURE • SEPTEMBER 2015 37 TABLE 5. Summary of affected area (ha) by district in the current scenario. Districts Low Medium High Total Vinh 0 668 13 681 Cua Lo 74 0 0 74 Thai Hoa 377 0 0 377 Que Phong 10 0 0 10 Quy Chau 4 0 0 4 Anh Son 122 0 0 122 Con Cuong 0 0 0 0 Do Luong 801 147 0 949 Dien Chau 0 982 0 982 Hung Nguyen 0 175 318 493 Ky Son 0 0 0 0 Nghi Loc 28 1235 0 1263 Quy Hop 0 279 0 279 Quynh Luu 231 3056 563 3850 Tan Ky 633 0 0 633 Thanh Chuong 704 10 0 714 Tuong Duong 0 0 0 0 Nam Dan 527 367 130 1024 Nghia Dan 1947 0 0 1947 Yen Thanh 874 726 10 1611 Total 6331 7645 1034 15011 in the GIS. ArcGIS software was applied to perform all spatial analyses. The illustration of some input maps are shown in Figures 3 and 4. Using 18 parameters from indicators in the model, the output of the analysis was a vulnerability zoning map, which shows the most vulnerable areas of aquaculture systems in the study area, indicated by orange shading (Fig. 5). Aquaculture in the area along the coastline has the greatest potential to be affected by the impacts of climate change, while the western mountains are only FIGURE 5. Vulnerability map of aquaculture in Nghe An province. slightly influenced. In the coastal zone, there is great dependency on aquaculture as a means of livelihood, compared to the western side. The basin of the Ca River is also quite vulnerable to the impact of climate change due to floods and heavy storms during the rainy season (Table 4). At the district level, Hung Nguyen, Quynh Luu and Nam Dan districts have the greatest vulnerability to potential impacts. Agricultural practices in those districts are mainly brackishwater TABLE 4. Summary of the area affected by climate change in the current scenario. Vulnerability Total area (ha) Low 6331 Medium 7645 High 1034 Very high 15011 The current and future economic impacts of climate change on fisheries in Vietnam is considered to be substantial, estimated to be US$1.5 billion in 2010 and US$25 billion in 2030. (CONTINUED ON PAGE 38)
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