EXPLORING ALTERNATIVE AQUACULTURE FUTURES IN INDONESIA

Fisheries and aquaculture offer jobs to over 6 million Indonesians and makes up roughly 3% of the country's GDP. It also provided more than half of the animal protein produced domestically and bring in 4.2 million in export earnings. Capture fisheries landings have, however, stagnated in recent year, making aquaculture the major source for increases in production. The Indonesian government has, as a result, set ambitious targets for the expansion of its aquaculture industry. Depending upon if and how these targets are met will not only shape the Indonesia's future role on global seafood markets, but also influence its population and environment.

In order to explore the developments of Indonesia's seafood industry up to 2030, we used the AsiaFish model and six possible scenarios: business-as-usual; stagnant capture fisheries; export-oriented aquaculture growth; domestic-oriented aquaculture growth; slow aquaculture growth; and disease struck aquaculture. In order to evaluate the requirements and consequences for these different futures, a post-model analysis was also conducted, using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and socio-economic indicators building upon primary data collected during fieldwork in 2014. Five impact categories were explored (global warming, acidification, freshwater use, eutrophication and land-use), alongside wild fish use, employment and market value.

Even though all of our alternative scenarios underestimated the government's targets, they highlighted several physical limits that would limit production, assuming current production practices. The demand for wild fish in or as aquaculture feed would, for example, exceed present Indonesian capture fisheries landings by 2025, assuming a business-as-usual scenario. While part of this fish would be imported as fishmeal, the sheer quantity needed would surely restrict the output of species such as shrimp and grouper that rely upon high inclusions of fish protein in their diets. Land would also pose a limitation in many of the future scenarios, especially the export-oriented scenario. Promoting fish mainly consumed domestically, such as pangasius, clarias and milkfish (AS3), would allow for a more efficient use of resources, but also reduce the overall monetary value. Depending upon the scenario, greenhouse gas emissions from the aquaculture industry could come to six-fold over the coming 25 years, while freshwater consumption could come to eight-fold.

Conclusively, aquaculture will become increasingly important for Indonesia's seafood industry, but the socio-economic and environmental consequences of this expansion could be dire. Promoting less demanding species and better production practices could, however, greatly improve the situation. In the process of doing so, promoting value added products and identifying domestic feed resources could come to improve profit margins for farmers.