SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN GLOBAL TILAPIA MARKETS 2016

Tilapia continued its rapid increase in global production through into 2015.  Indonesia in particular reported a large increase in production.   China held relatively steady after low prices held back production in late 2014 and early 2015.   Other locations of increasing production include Haiti, Myanmar (Burma) and Pakistan.  In 2014 and 2015 we saw additional expansion with more farms and more productivity in Bangladesh, Mexico, Egypt, and Brasil.  With recent production figures reported by various sources, our global production estimate for 2015 is 5,576,800 mt.  China continued its position as the single largest producer (1,800,000 mt in 2015). China's exports to the US slowed in 2015, but increased significantly to sub-Saharan Africa and to the Middle Eastern Gulf States.  Indonesia moved up to the second biggest producer with over 1,100,000 mt of production.   Egypt dropped to the third biggest producer of tilapia in the world, even while increasing production to 800,000 mt in 2015.  Indonesia's exports did not increase that much but domestic demand grew significantly.  VietNam increased its production significantly (150,000 mt), much of the growth based on a mix of cage culture, pond production and polyculture systems with marine shrimp to reduce virulence of the AHPNS, White Spot and various parasites.  The ban of American and European seafoods into Russia, led to an increase of exports of tilapia and Pangasius from Vietnam to Russia.  Thailand, Myanmar, and the Philippines consumed virtually all the tilapia grown in their countries. Bangladesh continued to increase its production at a tremendous rate.  2015 estimate is for more than 250,000 mt in Bangladesh.  Ecuador is the only country expecting production decreases as some tilapia farms have been converted to shrimp to take advantage of the increased shrimp prices.  Global prices and demand have been remarkably smooth with only a slight decrease for a few months in late 2014 and early 2015 with large supplies coming from China.    As production slacked from China, prices firmed again as demand had increased with the low prices.   The diversity of production locations and methods has smoothed supplies and prices as more and more consumers take advantage of the high quality and consistent supply.