FUTURE GLOBAL FINFISH AQUACULTURE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Most aquaculture is currently land-based, but future production will likely expand into the ocean due to increasing competition for inputs to on-land and coastal aquaculture and growing demand for seafood. The potential for offshore aquaculture to increase seafood production and remains uncertain. We employ a novel spatial model to estimate the production potential of offshore finfish aquaculture given physical, biological, and economic factors. Production potential is compared across species and regions and with climate change, based on outputs of a recent high-resolution global climate model. Implications for management and regulation of the emerging offshore aquaculture industry are discussed.