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Add To Calendar 25/02/2016 08:30:0025/02/2016 08:50:00America/ChicagoAquaculture 2016FORECASTING MONTHLY U.S. FARM-RAISED CATFISH (Ictalurus punctatus.) POND BANK FISH PRICE AND FEED PRICE   Versailles 3The World Aquaculture Societyjohnc@was.orgfalseanrl65yqlzh3g1q0dme13067DD/MM/YYYY


Mohammad Rajib Hasan*; Madan M. Dey
Aquaculture/Fisheries Center
1200 N. University Dr., Mail Slot: 4912
University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff
Pine Bluff, AR 71601

This study explored two important issues of the U.S. catfish industry: 1) price behavior of catfish fish and catfish feed; and 2) forecasting of catfish feed and fish prices. The objectives were to identify the factors influencing catfish feed prices and fish prices. This study also identified a forecasting model and used it to forecast feed and fish prices. Monthly price data used were collected from different published and unpublished sources. Following the modeling parsimony principle, a single-equation ARIMAX model was specified, and, based on cointegrating relationships among variables; error-correction models were specified. The important factors contributing to catfish feed price were previous month's feed price, corn price, and soybean price. Important factors contributing to catfish pond bank fish price were previous month's catfish price, previous 3 and 4 months' feed price, imported tilapia product price, previous month's imported catfish product price, and catfish food fish inventory. ECM estimates implied that feed price adjusts approximately 22 percent to the long run equilibrium in 1 month and that it takes less than 5 months to correct for long-run disequilibrium. Fish price adjusts approximately 6 percent to the long run equilibrium in 1 month, and it takes less than 17 months to correct for long-run disequilibrium. Comparing forecasting precision measures, the ECM was found to be more precise in terms of in-sample predictive ability, while the ARIMAX had better out-of-sample predictive ability for feed prices (Figure 2). The ARIMAX model fit better for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting for catfish pond bank fish prices (Figure 1). The price behavior study will hopefully be helpful to catfish farmers, extension agents, and policy makers in their future decision making process.

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