Climate change impacts on US marine aquaculture:  a regional perspective  

Marine aquaculture is inherently connected to the ocean and estuaries. Weather, water quality, and hydrodynamic processes are primary drivers of aquaculture production. All respond to changing climate conditions. Changing climate affects the species being cultured, farm management, and aquaculture infrastructure. No formal analysis has been conducted for how aquaculture in the U.S. will be impacted. Regional climate risk assessments and complex forecasting and climate modeling have been conducted in parts of the US. Frameworks to assess risk of climate impacts to domestic seafood production at regional scales are readily available. These rely on integrating biological and ecological characteristics of cultured species with climate projections at global and regional scales to focus research, industry and governance resources most effectively. Coastal communities need such science-based guidance to make strategic decisions for sustaining the industry with effective adaptation strategies.

We conducted a preliminary analysis combining climate change projections with aquaculture trends and research in the southeast and western coastal regions of the US. The outcomes help understand how the industry may be affected in the near and long-term by changes in temperature, storm surge and intensity, ocean acidification and changing weather. We identify potential high risk impacts, adaptation strategies, and mitigation approaches to support more formal risk analysis and strategic planning. Regional differences between the two areas are highlighted.

While aquaculture will certainly face challenges, we also consider how this industry will be part of the solution for developing resilient strategies for pending environmental changes. Coastal communities relying on wild and farmed seafood will need flexibility to adjust to ecological, economic and social consequences of climate change, and aquaculture provides a potential solution. Aquaculture has a proven history of cultivating novel species and developing new gear, and this spirit of and capacity for innovation will help bridge the gap between current and future marine seafood production. Furthermore, aquaculture can provide ecosystem services to mitigate or reduce climate change impacts.

Learn more about our work at www.coastalscience.noaa.gov/research/scem/marine_aquaculture/