ESTIMATING DEMAND FOR FISH AND ITS PRODUCTS IN UGANDA

Uganda has one of the highest population growth rates in the world. Along with this goes the high demand for plant and animal protein of which fish is an example. However, much as many studies have been done on fish production and marketing limited information exists that analyzes demand for the fish in the country. Thus this study aimed at estimating   fish demand in order to provide policy makers information on which base decisions on estimating supply. The study was carried out in all the four regions of Uganda. A total of 315 respondents were randomly selected and interviewed in both rural and urban areas of Uganda. To minimize on the weaknesses of small sample size and aggregation problem a three stage multiple budgeting framework of household was structured in a simple way. Further still, the study strictly focused on demand projections with respect to income growth and did not consider price and other parameters to keep the study simple. Descriptive statistics was used to characterize respondents.

Respondent average age was 36 years with a monthly income of 650,456UGx (US $182). The coefficient of food and fish expenditure functions for national, urban and rural areas was found to be positive and significant, indicating that the response of food expenditure to income changes and fish expenditure to food budget changes are substantial. Respondents had a per capita expenditure on food and fish of 558,000UGx (U$155) and 171,428UGx ( US$ 48)respectively. Income elasticity was positive and less than one for all the fish types but was higher in rural areas than in urban areas. The income elasticity of demand for tilapia was found to be highest amongst fish consumers and is expected to play a dominate role in meeting fish demand.  Considering 2010 as a base year, the demand for fish is likely to grow at a rate of 3.45% nationally, 3.33% for rural and 2.34% for urban areas. As such demand for tilapia will grow by 3.25%, Nile perch 3.12% and silver fish 4.37% percent between 2017 and 2040.

The country and other stakeholders need to invest their resources in promoting tilapia production and promoting silver fish consumption to meet this envisaged fish demand in the foreseeable future.